National Hurricane Center (Atlantic) Reports



NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 230515
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Two, located several hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Depression Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022014)
    ...FAST-MOVING DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Jul 23 the center of TWO was located near 13.9, -53.2 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression TWO

  • Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 7
    Issued at 500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014 000 WTNT32 KNHC 230834 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014 ...FAST-MOVING DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 53.2W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH... 31 KM/H. A SLIGHTLY FASTER WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON THURSDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 7
    Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 23 2014
    
    000
    WTNT22 KNHC 230833
    TCMAT2
    
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
    0900 UTC WED JUL 23 2014
    
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
    
    INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
    THIS SYSTEM.
    
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  53.2W AT 23/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  17 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  53.2W AT 23/0900Z
    AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N  52.2W
    
    FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.3N  56.1W
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.9N  59.9W
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.4N  64.0W
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N  53.2W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN
    
    
    
    
  • Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 7
    Issued at 500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014
    
    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 230834
    TCDAT2
    
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
    500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014
    
    The small tropical depression has maintained an area of deep
    convection overnight. However, recent microwave imagery indicates
    that the convection is not particularly well organized.  An AMSR2
    image from 0435 UTC also shows that the circulation may be losing
    definition.  The depression is currently passing just south of
    NOAA Buoy 41040 which has recently reported a peak one-minute
    wind of 27 kt and a minimum pressure of 1013.8 mb.  Based on a TAFB
    Dvorak classification and the buoy observations, the initial wind
    speed remains 30 kt.
    
    The environment ahead of the depression is forecast to become even
    more hostile than it has been, due to increasing vertical shear and
    dry air.  These conditions should cause the depression to weaken
    during the next day or so, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate
    into a trough of low pressure within 48 hours.  All of the
    dynamical models show the depression becoming an open trough before
    reaching the Lesser Antilles, and it is quite possible that the
    cyclone will dissipate sooner than shown below.
    
    The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 17 kt.  The
    depression or its remnants will continue moving west-northwestward
    to westward with some increase in forward speed during the next day
    or so.  The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
    advisory and is near the consensus of the ECMWF and GFS models.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  23/0900Z 13.9N  53.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
     12H  23/1800Z 14.3N  56.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
     24H  24/0600Z 14.9N  59.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
     36H  24/1800Z 15.4N  64.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
     48H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Brown
    
    
    
  • Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
    Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 23 2014
    
    000
    FONT12 KNHC 230834
    PWSAT2
                                                                        
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7         
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014               
    0900 UTC WED JUL 23 2014                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR     
    LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
    WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    GUADELOUPE     34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
     
    AVES           34  X   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
     
    DOMINICA       34  X   3( 3)  10(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
     
    MARTINIQUE     34  X   4( 4)   7(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
     
    SAINT LUCIA    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
    
    
  • Tropical Depression TWO Graphics

    Tropical Depression TWO 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Jul 2014 08:35:50 GMT


    Tropical Depression TWO 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Jul 2014 09:04:44 GMT


National Hurricane Center (East Pacific) Reports



NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

 


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230526
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have become better organized this evening.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development
and this system is expected to become a tropical depression during
the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave located about 1700 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it moves westward into the
central Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a few days.  Some development of
this system is expected over the weekend while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Yet another area of low pressure could form during the next couple
of days several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula.  Some gradual development of this system
is possible by the weekend while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 23 Jul 2014 09:15:33 GMT

Interesting Weather Facts
? HOTTEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED
The world's highest official temperature is 136°F (58°C) recorded at El Azizia, Libya, on 13 September 1922.