National Hurricane Center (Atlantic) Reports



NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 211133
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Harvey,
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  Some
development of this system is still possible before it reaches
the coast of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday.  The
disturbance is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche early
Wednesday, where environmental conditions are expected to be more
conducive for redevelopment.  Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to spread westward across
northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula
during the next couple of days.  The Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft mission scheduled for today has been canceled.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A trough of low pressure located near the southeastern and central
Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for
development of this system during the next day or so while it moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the Bahamas.  Conditions
could become a little more conducive for development later in the
week when the system is near Florida or the adjacent waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms located about 800 miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is associated with a
surface trough that is interacting with a large upper-level low over
the central Atlantic.  Upper-level winds are not conducive for
development of this system while it moves northwestward over the
central Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 21 Aug 2017 15:39:08 GMT


National Hurricane Center (East Pacific) Reports



NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211135
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kenneth, located more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
    ...KENNETH REMAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 the center of Kenneth was located near 17.9, -130.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Hurricane Kenneth

  • Hurricane Kenneth Public Advisory Number 13
    Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 211432 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kenneth Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 ...KENNETH REMAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 130.9W ABOUT 1400 MI...2255 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kenneth was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 130.9 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a north-northwest motion by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Kenneth is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 13
    Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 21 2017
    
    000
    WTPZ23 KNHC 211431
    TCMEP3
    
    HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017
    1500 UTC MON AUG 21 2017
    
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
    
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 130.9W AT 21/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  957 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
    64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
    50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
    34 KT....... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
    12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 130.9W AT 21/1500Z
    AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 130.6W
    
    FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.9N 132.0W
    MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
    64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
    50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
    34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.4N 133.1W
    MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
    64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
    50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
    34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.2N 134.0W
    MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
    50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.1N 134.9W
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.4N 136.0W...POST-TROPICAL
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 29.6N 136.8W...POST-TROPICAL
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 31.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 130.9W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
    
    
    
  • Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 13
    Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017
    
    000
    WTPZ43 KNHC 211432
    TCDEP3
    
    Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number  13
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
    800 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017
    
    Kenneth continues to have an impressive structure in satellite
    images.  The eye of the hurricane remains distinct, and the
    convective pattern is symmetric around the center.  The cloud
    tops in the eyewall, however, are not quite as cold as they were
    overnight, which resulted in a decrease of the 1200 UTC Dvorak
    final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Based on an average of the final
    T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the
    University of Wisconsin, the initial wind speed is lowered a
    little, to 110 kt.
    
    Kenneth has likely reached its peak intensity as it will be
    crossing the 26 deg C isotherm later today.  In addition, the
    hurricane will be moving into a progressively drier air mass.
    These unfavorable thermodynamics combined with a significant
    increase in southerly shear beginning in about 2 days should cause
    Kenneth to weaken at a steady or rapid pace.  The system is forecast
    to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 3 days when the shear is
    expected to increase to near 30 kt while Kenneth is over SSTs below
    23 deg C.  These conditions should cause the associated convection
    to dissipate or be sheared away from the circulation.  The NHC
    intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus
    models.
    
    The major hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt steered by
    a mid-level ridge to its northeast.  The system is forecast to turn
    to the northwest later today, followed by a north-northwestward
    motion by late Tuesday as Kenneth moves into a pronounced weakness
    caused by a cut-off low near the California coast.  The models are
    in fairly good agreement, and only minor changes were made to the
    previous NHC track forecast.  This forecast lies close to the
    various consensus aids.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  21/1500Z 17.9N 130.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
     12H  22/0000Z 18.9N 132.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
     24H  22/1200Z 20.4N 133.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
     36H  23/0000Z 22.2N 134.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
     48H  23/1200Z 24.1N 134.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
     72H  24/1200Z 27.4N 136.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
     96H  25/1200Z 29.6N 136.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    120H  26/1200Z 31.0N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    
    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
    
    
  • Hurricane Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
    Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 21 2017
    
    000
    FOPZ13 KNHC 211432
    PWSEP3
                                                                        
    HURRICANE KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13               
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017               
    1500 UTC MON AUG 21 2017                                            
                                                                        
    AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
    17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
    110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.                                       
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    20N 130W       34  2   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
     
    25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
     
    20N 135W       34  1  18(19)   9(28)   1(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
    20N 135W       50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    25N 135W       34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  46(53)  22(75)   X(75)   X(75)
    25N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  21(34)   X(34)   X(34)
    25N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)   X(10)
     
    30N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)   2(18)
    30N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
     
    25N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    30N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               
    
  • Hurricane Kenneth Graphics

    Hurricane Kenneth 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Aug 2017 14:37:41 GMT


    Hurricane Kenneth 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Aug 2017 15:26:07 GMT

Interesting Weather Facts
HOTTEST DAY EVER
Death Valley, California (Furnace Creek Station) recorded the hottest temperature on record for one day, throughout the Western Hemisphere at 134°F (56.7 °C) on 10 July 1913.