National Hurricane Center (Atlantic) Reports



NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 312311
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 01 Nov 2014 01:14:20 GMT


National Hurricane Center (East Pacific) Reports



NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

 


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312326
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vance, located several hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico.

A low pressure system located about 1100 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is showing some signs
of organization. Slow development of this system is possible before
upper-level winds become less favorable by early next week. The low
is expected to move toward the west-southwest at 5 to 10 mph over
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low..10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
    ...VANCE NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 31 the center of VANCE was located near 9.5, -101.4 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm VANCE

  • Tropical Storm VANCE Public Advisory Number 7
    Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 312054 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 ...VANCE NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.5N 101.4W ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND VANCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 7
    Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014
    
    000
    WTPZ21 KNHC 312054
    TCMEP1
     
    TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
    2100 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014
     
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
     
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.5N 101.4W AT 31/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   6 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
    34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
    12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.5N 101.4W AT 31/2100Z
    AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.7N 101.2W
     
    FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z  9.3N 102.4W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z  9.6N 104.1W
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 10.5N 106.2W
    MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.7N 108.4W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
    34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.5W
    MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
    50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
    34 KT...130NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 19.8N 108.5W
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 23.5N 106.0W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.5N 101.4W
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE
     
     
    
    
  • Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 7
    Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014
    
    000
    WTPZ41 KNHC 312055
    TCDEP1
    
    TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
    200 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014
    
    Vance has a peculiar structure this afternoon.  The central
    convection has become somewhat skeletal with the center exposed at
    times, although there are still plenty of curved banding features in
    the outer portion of the circulation. The culprit for this decrease
    in convection appears to be an influx of dry air moving into the
    central region of the tropical cyclone around the west and south
    sides.  Dvorak estimates still support an intensity of about 40 kt.
    
    Since the dry air is close to the center now, it will probably take
    some time for this air to mix out.  Thus little change is shown in
    the short term.  Afterward, models insist that the large-scale
    environment will become favorable for strengthening over the next
    three days or so.  Strong southwesterly shear is anticipated for the
    beginning of next week, which will probably cause Vance to weaken
    significantly at long range.  There has not been much change to the
    guidance suite, with the majority of the guidance still showing
    Vance as a hurricane in a few days.  The NHC forecast is therefore
    very close to the previous one, and generally lies between the
    intensity consensus and the SHIPS model.
    
    It seems that finally the motion of Vance has become more clear, now
    moving west-southwestward at about 6 kt.  This general motion is
    expected through tonight due to a ridge over the eastern Pacific.
    This ridge should move eastward over the next few days, steering the
    cyclone more westward tomorrow, and to the northwest by late this
    weekend. Vance is then forecast to turn northward and then north-
    northeastward ahead of a trough moving over Baja California. Subtle
    differences in the speed of the trough are leading to increased
    model spread at long range, with the faster ECMWF preferring a more
    north-northeast track, compared to the slower GFS solution of a
    sharper northeastward turn.  The NHC forecast is adjusted westward
    at day 3 and beyond, and is close to a dynamical model consensus
    excluding the UKMET model, which has an improbable forecast due to a
    seemingly spurious interaction with a weak ITCZ disturbance.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  31/2100Z  9.5N 101.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
     12H  01/0600Z  9.3N 102.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
     24H  01/1800Z  9.6N 104.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
     36H  02/0600Z 10.5N 106.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
     48H  02/1800Z 11.7N 108.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
     72H  03/1800Z 16.0N 110.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
     96H  04/1800Z 19.8N 108.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
    120H  05/1800Z 23.5N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
    
    $$
    Forecaster Blake
    
    
    
  • Tropical Storm VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
    Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014
    
    000
    FOPZ11 KNHC 312054
    PWSEP1
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7            
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014               
    2100 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014                                            
                                                                        
    AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR        
    LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
    WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   7(15)
    CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
     
    SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)
    SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
     
    LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
     
    HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
     
    LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
     
    CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
     
    MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)
     
    SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)
     
    P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)
     
    BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
     
    MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
     
    ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  26(41)   2(43)
    ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   1(14)
    ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
     
    ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
     
    ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   7(18)
    ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
     
    CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  29(35)   4(39)   X(39)   X(39)
    CLIPPERTON IS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)
    CLIPPERTON IS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
    
    
  • Tropical Storm VANCE Graphics

    Tropical Storm VANCE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 31 Oct 2014 20:56:26 GMT


    Tropical Storm VANCE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Nov 2014 01:12:57 GMT

Interesting Weather Facts
? HAWAIIAN FACT
In Hawaii, where surface temperatures are always above 50°F, there is snow. Between 1 and 2 feet of snow falls each year in the mountains above 5,000 feet.