National Hurricane Center (Atlantic) Reports



NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 152321
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Edouard, located a little less than 600 miles east-southeast of
Bermuda.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Wednesday, and produce an area of low pressure over the far
eastern Atlantic.  Conditions appear conducive for some development
of this system by late this week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
    ...EDOUARD TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 15 the center of EDOUARD was located near 29.0, -56.9 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Hurricane EDOUARD

  • Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 19
    Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 160237 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014 ...EDOUARD TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 56.9W ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD TURN WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED BY TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN ]]>
  • Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 19
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014
    
    000
    WTNT21 KNHC 160237
    TCMAT1
     
    HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
    0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014
     
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
     
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N  56.9W AT 16/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT  11 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
    EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
    64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
    50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
    34 KT.......150NE 130SE 130SW 150NW.
    12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 180SW 210NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N  56.9W AT 16/0300Z
    AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N  56.6W
     
    FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.5N  57.3W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
    64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
    50 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
    34 KT...150NE 140SE 140SW 150NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 32.8N  56.6W
    MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
    50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
    34 KT...160NE 160SE 150SW 140NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.5N  54.3W
    MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
    50 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
    34 KT...160NE 170SE 170SW 130NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 38.1N  50.4W
    MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
    50 KT... 90NE 100SE  70SW  60NW.
    34 KT...140NE 180SE 180SW 120NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.9N  41.3W
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
    34 KT...130NE 150SE 160SW 120NW.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 40.0N  36.0W...POST-TROPICAL
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 38.6N  32.3W...POST-TROPICAL
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N  56.9W
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
     
     
    
    
  • Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 19
    Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014
    
    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 160240
    TCDAT1
    
    HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
    1100 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014
    
    Edouard has not strengthened further.  While the eye has become
    somewhat better defined and warmer since the last advisory, deep
    convection in the central dense overcast is not quite as cold.  The
    intensification phase that the cyclone was experiencing earlier may
    have been interrupted by 15-20 kt of southeasterly shear as analyzed
    by the SHIPS model output and UW-CIMSS analyses.  Dvorak intensity
    estimates remain a consensus T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and SAB, while
    UW-CIMSS CI values are around T5.6/105kt.  A blend of these data is
    used to hold the initial intensity at 95 kt.
    
    Edouard still has another 24-36 hours to intensify.  Moderately
    strong southeasterly shear, resulting from the flow between
    a low to the southwest and a high to the east at upper levels, is
    forecast to decrease as Edouard nears its point of recurvature.
    Near and immediately after that time, the shear and motion vectors
    should align, which tends to favor more symmetric convection.  These
    favorable factors, despite gradually cooler waters beneath the
    cyclone, should allow Edouard to reach major hurricane status.
    Drastically cooler waters and a substantial increase in
    southwesterly shear beyond 48 hours suggest that a rapid decay of
    the cyclone should occur by that time.  Interaction with a
    baroclinic zone in 2-3 days should cause the beginning of
    extratropical transition, but this process is expected to become
    interrupted when the cyclone shears apart and outruns this weather
    system.  Edouard is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in 96
    hours, if not slightly sooner, and gradually spin down over the
    northeastern Atlantic.  The NHC wind speed forecast is the same as
    the previous one through 48 hours and is above all of the intensity
    guidance. The forecast is lowered relative to the last advisory
    after that time and is near the multi-model consensus IVCN.
    
    Edouard has recently turned north-northwestward and the initial
    motion estimate is now 335/11.  The track guidance remains in
    excellent agreement through 72 hours.  The cyclone is expected to
    turn northward in 12-18 hours when it rounds the western periphery
    of a subtropical ridge.  An acceleration toward the northeast, and
    then east-northeast, is expected beyond 24 hours as Edouard is
    captured by a relatively fast-paced westerly flow over the north
    Atlantic.  Near the end of the forecast period, the increasingly
    shallow vortex should turn eastward and southeastward within the
    flow on the west side of a deep-layer low over the northeast
    Atlantic.  The track guidance has shifted noticeably to the left on
    this cycle.  However, to maintain continuity, the new NHC track
    forecast is only nudged to the left of the previous one, and lies on
    the far right side of the guidance envelope.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  16/0300Z 29.0N  56.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
     12H  16/1200Z 30.5N  57.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
     24H  17/0000Z 32.8N  56.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
     36H  17/1200Z 35.5N  54.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
     48H  18/0000Z 38.1N  50.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
     72H  19/0000Z 40.9N  41.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
     96H  20/0000Z 40.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    120H  21/0000Z 38.6N  32.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    
    $$
    Forecaster Kimberlain
    
    
    
  • Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014
    
    000
    FONT11 KNHC 160240
    PWSAT1
                                                                        
    HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19               
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014               
    0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
    29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
    95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.                                        
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    SANTA CRUZ AZO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN                                               
    
    
  • Hurricane EDOUARD Graphics

    Hurricane EDOUARD 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2014 02:38:03 GMT


    Hurricane EDOUARD 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2014 02:39:46 GMT


National Hurricane Center (East Pacific) Reports



NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

 


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152347
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Odile, located inland over the south-central portion of the Baja
California peninsula.

An elongated low pressure system located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are conducive
for development, and this disturbance is likely become a tropical
depression during the next day or two while it moves slowly toward
the west-northwest or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii have become slightly better organized.  Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while the low moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm ODILE (EP5/EP152014)
    ...ODILE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 the center of ODILE was located near 26.6, -112.1 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm ODILE

  • Tropical Storm ODILE Public Advisory Number 24
    Issued at 800 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 160235 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014 ...ODILE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 112.1W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NW OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS...AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SAN EVARISTO TO SANTA ROSALIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO BAHIA KINO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ODILE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.24 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD STILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND SONORA. SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Advisory Number 24
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014
    
    000
    WTPZ25 KNHC 160235
    TCMEP5
    
    TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
    0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014
    
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
    FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS...AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF
    BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SAN EVARISTO TO SANTA ROSALIA.
    
    THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
    WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO SAN
    JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
    * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTA TO BAHIA DE
    LOS ANGELES
    * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO BAHIA KINO
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS
    PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN
    * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS
    ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE
    * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD
    
    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
    NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.
    
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 112.1W AT 16/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  11 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
    50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
    34 KT.......120NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.
    12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 120SW  75NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 112.1W AT 16/0300Z
    AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 111.9W
    
    FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.8N 113.0W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT...100NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 28.8N 113.6W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT...100NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 29.7N 113.5W...OVER WATER
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 30.6N 112.8W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 32.0N 111.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 112.1W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH
    
    
    
  • Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 24
    Issued at 800 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014
    
    000
    WTPZ45 KNHC 160236
    TCDEP5
    
    TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
    800 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014
    
    The tropical cyclone continues to have a fairly well-organized
    appearance on satellite imagery, but deep convection has been
    thinning out.  Applying a typical inland decay rate, the current
    intensity is set at a rather uncertain 55 kt.  Continued weakening
    is forecast, and the system is likely to fall below tropical storm
    strength in a day or so.  The official wind speed forecast is
    similar to the latest decay-SHIPS guidance and to the intensity
    model consensus, and now shows Odile becoming a remnant low by 72
    hours.
    
    Odile's heading has shifted a little to the right, and the
    initial motion estimate is 340/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the
    east of the cyclone should cause a turn toward the north in a day or
    so, and a low- to mid-level trough near southern California is
    likely to turn Odile or its remnant low north-northeastward in 2-3
    days.  The official track forecast is a little faster than the
    previous one and is close to the latest dynamical model consensus
    forecast, TVCE.
    
    Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's
    circulation over the next few days.  This, along with the slow
    motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally
    heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern
    United States.  Please see information from your local weather
    office for more details.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  16/0300Z 26.6N 112.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
     12H  16/1200Z 27.8N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
     24H  17/0000Z 28.8N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
     36H  17/1200Z 29.7N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
     48H  18/0000Z 30.6N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
     72H  19/0000Z 32.0N 111.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
    
    
    
  • Tropical Storm ODILE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014
    
    000
    FOPZ15 KNHC 160236
    PWSEP5
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM ODILE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24            
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014               
    0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR        
    LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
    WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    YUMA AZ        34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    P ABREOJOS     34 46   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)
     
    LORETO         34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
    LORETO         50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
     
    P PENASCO      34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)
     
    HERMOSILLO     34  4   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
     
    BAHIA KINO     34 22   5(27)   1(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
     
    GUAYMAS        34 17   1(18)   X(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
     
    HUATABAMPO     34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
    
    
  • Tropical Storm ODILE Graphics

    Tropical Storm ODILE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2014 02:43:26 GMT


    Tropical Storm ODILE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2014 02:36:47 GMT

Interesting Weather Facts
? COLDEST DAY EVER
Vostok Station, Antarctica recorded the coldest temperature on record for one day, throughout the world at -126.8°F (-89.2 °C) on 21 July 1983.