United States
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF)


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United States QPF Discussion
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EDT THU APR 27 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 28/0000 UTC THRU APR 29/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

FAR NORTHEAST MN

COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO ONTARIO WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN EARLY
DAY 1.  PRECIP TOTAL HERE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE--WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE BORDER INTO
ONTARIO.

EASTERN U.S.

THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO DAY 1 WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT PRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN  APPALACHIANS.  THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE ANY APPRECIABLE PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.  WITH THE OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS STRETCHING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NEW ENGLAND.

LEE OF THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER LAKES---ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
THE NORTHWEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.   THESE AMPLIFYING HEIGHT FALLS WILL
SUPPORT AN EXPANDING AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP FROM THE LEE OF
THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  LATE
SEASON HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY ON THE WESTERN END OF THE PRECIP FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL MT--ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF WY INTO FAR NORTHEAST
CO AND WESTERN KS. SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION.   THE 0000 UTC ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER WITH LESS
PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS COMPARED TO MOST OF THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE. THE 1200 UTC ECMWF TRENDED HEAVIER FROM THE
0000 UTC RUN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS NOW IN BETTER OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THROUGH THE DAY 1
PERIOD---SIGNIFICANT PRECIP NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER OH AND LOWER
MS VALLEY.  HOWEVER---CONVECTION SHOULD ENHANCE QUICKLY ACROSS
THESE AREAS EARLY DAY 2.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 560836 559834 559831 559828 547760 546766 545762 543747
      534737 522728 520725 518721 518717 516704 512697 508694
      503689 498685 491679 485675 485671 488665 488657 484651
      482647 478645 473641 468637 461633 453631 445631 438633
      429636 424640 418644 414650 401664 397670 393677 388684
      382690 371699 366705 362712 353727 349732 346738 342743
      339751 335759 331767 323780 319788 318792 319799 326800
      331794 342781 350780 357775 364773 367771 371770 372772
      370774 368776 361780 338802 332808 326814 318825 314831
      310839 305846 300852 295858 291866 289869 291871 298869
      309859 315855 317854 319855 318858 315866 307871 305873
      301874 299876 299881 300901 304912 308920 312924 318927
      323930 326932 330932 333929 334925 330919 324913 322910
      321907 319904 320901 320897 325889 327887 326884 329876
      335858 335855 336851 338847 339841 340837 343834 348830
      354825 360821 372812 389806 405800 420795 436796 445797
      453799 479809 488819 499832 504839 506842 505848 501853
      497854 494853 487850 479851 477853 475858 474864 474872
      480888 483899 480907 477917 475928 474931 474937 474944
      475947 476952 479954 486959 489960 491958 500957 513953
      521949 528944 537936 541931 545922 549914 554906 558899
      561889 562881 562870 561850
 0.01 542179 543170 541164 536159 525147 518140 511134 496122
      493119 487117 485110 484108 485106 486103 488102 492102
      497102 500102 505102 509102 513100 515098 517094 516089
      513085 511081 508078 505075 492073 490075 485075 482076
      477075 469069 466065 464062 461061 457060 455056 450047
      440029 436009 433996 433985 431959 434931 430909 423888
      418881 411871 408861 406856 402853 399851 396849 388847
      379845 374846 368849 362854 358856 358861 359875 357889
      351908 344925 335945 319977 315984 313988 313994 311999
      314001 324997 332994 341989 347984 352978 354977 355981
      356986 358990 360994 372010 384023 391029 394034 393038
      390038 361049 350048 345048 342053 339056 339061 338067
      336071 335084 340097 341102 344103 347103 351099 353093
      353087 355073 357068 362065 361062 363058 365054 369054
      374053 377053 383060 383069 378068 374070 372075 373081
      381084 384088 388089 393089 396090 398088 401095 401101
      398104 395105 391107 388111 385113 381117 380122 383125
      390123 399123 405125 411124 414125 417123 423129 430124
      436118 439118 442120 446123 452121 454121 454125 452129
      445135 441135 437136 433147 436158 444166 446172 444176
      441181 439184 436184 434182 433179 432174 429171 425169
      418168 415170 417174 416181 418185 426189 431190 436195
      440202 442206 443209 442213 438215 433217 424219 423224
      427226 432228 435232 435240 437242 446243 462242 473244
      478245 480244 481241 479236 477234 475232 472233 469234
      464232 460234 450234 446234 447229 453225 462225 471223
      479222 485224 490227 497225 502218 505204 504200 503197
      499199 493204 488205 480207 474210 465210 458212
 0.01 458212 454212 451211 450206 451200 452195 454190 458186
      462179 463176 461175 456170 457166 460166 468168 475171
      490174 496173 502172 506173 508175 513181 517185 524187
      528189 533193 538191 541184 542179
 0.01 274822 273820 271818 269816 267814 265813 262811 260810
      257811 258815 260817 262819 265820 266821 270822 272823
      274822
 0.25 557870 557860 557849 553835 548822 543810 539810 535813
      533819 531825 528832 526837 520847 514857 508867 503878
      502887 502896 502905 503914 505921 507926 511931 516934
      522931 525928 532919 539909 550890 554879 557870
 0.25 533176 534174 534171 533170 532169 531168 530167 529166
      527165 526164 524164 523166 523168 524170 524171 525172
      527174 528176 529178 531179 532179 533178 533176
 0.25 535789 536784 534780 531776 529771 528764 526756 522750
      515742 506735 501734 496738 494746 495756 496766 499773
      502779 505782 517783 522785 527788 531791 534791 535789
 0.25 516161 515155 511152 508149 505146 502144 497142 492142
      491147 491152 495156 499157 503159 508161 513161 516161
 0.25 495794 496790 494787 492782 490779 487778 478777 473776
      468776 460777 454777 450780 450785 452787 460790 468792
      476795 483796 488797 493795 495794
 0.25 478157 477151 475146 473143 469140 465139 463139 460139
      457142 456146 457151 460155 463157 468159 473160 477158
      478157
 0.25 472101 473097 473092 471088 463080 452065 442046 433027
      427004 424978 422964 422957 422948 424936 424924 421918
      418916 413917 409921 405931 398937 395937 392938 389941
      387945 386951 386961 387974 388987 388995 386001 386008
      388013 393022 398030 403039 406049 407053 406056 404061
      402064 403067 407070 414078 418087 422089 426093 429097
      432100 437102 444101 449103 454105 464109 470105 472101
 0.25 444771 443766 441765 437763 431763 426766 421768 416772
      412777 413781 415782 422782 427781 434780 439777 442774
      444771
 0.25 379725 376719 375716 372717 367721 364725 361729 360734
      362738 366740 371738 377735 377732 376730 379725
 0.50 553865 554858 553851 549844 545839 542837 538838 533843
      529849 524855 520862 514877 512881 512887 513900 513905
      515910 518918 521919 524918 529912 537900 545887 549879
      552872 553865
 0.50 455083 454079 453076 448068 442055 434040 431033 429025
      425008 422989 419970 417960 414952 409948 403948 396949
      393953 393959 394982 395992 393000 392007 392014 395020
      400026 416052 420057 422068 424086 429092 431092 435090
      436087 436080 437076 440074 444075 448080 451083 455083
 1.00 541871 540869 538869 536870 535873 533875 532878 530882
      529886 530889 532888 535886 537884 538881 540877 541874
      541871
 1.00 421036 422028 422020 420006 418994 415982 413976 410971
      407975 402977 401983 400991 400999 398005 398013 400018
      406026 412033 417036 420038 421036
 1.50 416022 417015 416009 416003 414998 412995 408997 406001
      405007 405014 406019 409023 412025 415025 416023 416022

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion