United States
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF)


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United States QPF Discussion
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 23/1200 UTC THRU AUG 24/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL AFFORD AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WEST TX INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN NM ON WED.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
DEEPENING MOISTURE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING PW ANOMALIES OF 1-1.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS WEST TX INTO SOUTHERN NM
WED EVENING.  THIS MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH ENHANCED LOW TO MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL SIGNAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN NM WHERE MID LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
FORCING ALOFT.

...SOUTHEASTERN VA/EASTERN CAROLINAS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ALONG THE COASTAL
MID ATLANTIC ON WED.  THIS WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT PWS AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THIS
MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVING TROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS
IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE HEAVY AMOUNTS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

PEREIRA

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 231985 231989 233994 235996 240996 244996 248994 250990
      248986 259971 261971 262973 266974 270972 272971 273974
      276977 280976 288973 292970 294966 296962 298961 298963
      295983 294988 293995 293006 302019 308025 312027 318027
      323027 326026 329026 334028 332030 326029 321030 317032
      313034 315039 318042 320046 313050 311051 309048 311043
      311040 309037 305030 302028 299031 295039 292042 286043
      283046 283049 285050 298051 303057 301060 295060 284059
      279059 278065 278069 275071 269069 259064 250060 240058
      236061 237065 246070 253074 254077 259080 268088 273093
      293109 302115 310122 319127 322119 321115 322111 324106
      326103 329101 333101 335105 336110 337115 337120 338124
      340129 341128 342113 345110 346104 346103 347096 344097
      343093 345091 346086 355076 355072 352063 354060 360058
      363056 374055 379054 381059 380065 378069 375072 372077
      373081 376082 379083 381076 383073 388074 393078 400081
      400085 401088 406084 409081 413078 420074 422070 420065
      418063 419059 420053 417050 413049 409050 404052 398052
      394050 390049 386051 381051 379046 383044 388044 396042
      404041 407038 404037 401035 396034 381028 374023 370021
      364020 355017 349016 348011 345983 344978 344970 344963
      345958 345948 348939 352930 352923 352917 349909 346901
      342893 340884 336873 334862 333849 330839 328837 330835
      331833 334828 340821 342816 345818 349827 352838 354842
      358840 361832 365825 371820 374819 377814 383809 387805
      387801 388797 388792 389787 388783 386778 386775 387769
      386761 387754 398737 402729 403725 404720 416710 419706
      422702 426695 432687 436684 440682 456674 463669 469666
      470662 474652 477641 479635 476629 473624 468625 458628
      452632 439643 433649 425654 418662 413670 397692 392692
      390694 387696 381701 375705 361708 354710 348714 338720
      328730 320738 313749 307759 298769 289776 283781 275782
      265777 255768 251765 246762 241759 234759 229759 223761
      220764 220767 223774 228784 231790 233798 237810 234812
      233816 235822 236824 236828 239830 243830 245832 249835
      253838 259842 265844 270843 272842 277839 283840 287839
      290841 295841 297838 297834 296832 294829 288827 285826
      287823 295814 297815 299819 301825 300859 300863 298867
      295870 290874 286879 283883 280889 280894 278896 276895
      271892 260884 256882 248881 235880 230879 225881
 0.01 515259 516251 515245 511238 507235 504231 502220 498211
      495208 490207 481208 474211 468215 466219 467223 483221
      494235 497239 498245 494248 491248 488245 484247 482249
      485252 491260 495260 497258 499261 507264 513261 515259
 0.01 531031 529023 525013 518996 511981 504967 499961 493956
      481947 471935 462925 457920 448917 440917 436918 434921
      436930 439940 446954 455968 460972 465977 472977 476977
      479975 483969 484967 486969 489972 492980 497987 504001
      513015 516022 522027 526032 529033 531031
 0.01 480241 481239 480238 480236 479235 478233 478232 476232
      474233 472234 471236 472237 473239 473240 475241 476243
      478242 480242 480241
 0.01 490162 488159 481157 476158 470157 463165 453169 447178
      440185 432192 423189 419187 416187 416189 419194 421200
      415212 413217 412221 412225 417224 422222 426218 428213
      439210 442207 445201 452193 458183 462181 467177 474169
      477166 484167 488165 490162
 0.01 455157 451150 448147 445144 441135 438129 436130 433136
      431142 427144 430140 431137 431133 432129 433122 434119
      437116 440114 443116 447121 450117 452111 453107 453102
      451099 446098 434087 427087 423088 421090 424096 427098
      424100 421096 414085 408090 402097 394110 392114 388116
      385118 382120 381124 384125 390123 396119 405118 414118
      416122 417128 416133 414137 413144 413151 415160 419166
      421169 425170 428167 428161 428156 429151 434151 436153
      441156 447158 453159 455157
 0.01 453737 452730 450727 448729 443737 442752 440757 438762
      437764 434763 434758 432759 430763 431771 427782 428788
      431791 434792 438787 440783 441776 443775 444784 443789
      441796 436804 435810 437813 441815 444815 446812 450810
      455808 455803 453796 450782 446770 446763 447757 453737
 0.01 441002 438995 435990 433985 428978 423973 416968 410968
      410970 414975 417977 420987 426992 429995 432999 434004
      437005 441002
 0.01 440868 436868 431868 426869 421869 417867 414870 414873
      418875 421877 426876 430876 435873 438871 440868
 0.01 422796 420796 417802 414807 412812 409817 407824 406831
      408833 412831 413828 414821 418816 419811 419806 420802
      422796
 0.01 394203 393197 388193 383189 378187 372184 367183 365184
      365188 370192 375195 379199 383203 389203 394203
 0.01 364159 364157 363155 363154 363155 361156 360156 361157
      362159 364160 364159
 0.01 320827 318826 318825 318826 316826 315828 313830 312833
      312835 312837 312839 311844 313844 314839 315837 315836
      317834 317832 318830 320827
 0.01 312803 310801 307799 303800 300802 298803 296805 293806
      293809 297809 298809 302810 306810 309807 311805 312803
 0.25 232965 236966 241965 246963 250960 255952 263946 269939
      271934 272929 270919 266908 261899 254893 249891 243890
      238889 232889 227891
 0.25 451652 449646 444649 441652 438656 436659 434663 433666
      434669 437668 441665 444662 447659 450655 451652
 0.25 409105 409103 409102 409101 408099 407100 406102 406105
      407107 409107 409105
 0.25 384738 383736 380738 373742 366744 364742 364739 368732
      373727 374724 374720 372717 368718 343733 338738 333744
      324756 316768 314774 315779 318778 324774 327772 328774
      325782 323788 320795 320798 321801 323804 330807 334806
      337808 341806 347801 352797 355797 356801 355804 356809
      360802 363795 367789 372785 376782 377779 379770 379762
      381755 383749 384738
 0.25 358051 358047 357041 351041 347039 342039 339040 336043
      340045 344047 347049 350052 354055 358052 358051
 0.25 339093 336079 331074 329072 328068 326067 322068 317066
      313065 310067 306072 302077 300079 299083 297088 302092
      302097 303104 307109 313109 318097 328091 332091 335093
      339093
 0.25 339058 338056 336055 333053 331052 327052 325053 321054
      319056 318058 321060 325061 328061 332060 334060 337059
      339058
 0.25 329993 333991 339993 340989 339982 338971 338967 335963
      332961 332956 331947 327946 323948 319951 317954 315958
      314964 313975 310983 306986 302985 299986 297989 296002
      297006 299010 305017 309019 314019 314015 313010 309000
      310996 313994 321992 329993
 0.25 334913 334899 332889 329878 327874 325875 324900 324913
      324919 322919 321922 319922 316917 315905 314894 312884
      310879 308882 307892 307898 308905 310915 315922 317930
      323934 328932 330929 334913
 0.25 308041 308040 306039 304039 303040 303042 304044 306044
      307043 308042 308041
 0.25 289799 284794 278791 263789 256788 248787 241787 238791
      240800 240809 241814 243817 245819 250820 253820 256823
      261827 266832 269831 273828 274821 271814 270811 273808
      280806 286802 289799
 0.25 294943 294941 294939 294937 293935 292934 291935 290937
      290939 289941 289943 288945 288946 290947 292946 293945
      294943 294943
 0.50 378750 377746 375747 370749 357755 351760 345764 335775
      331781 328788 327791 330792 337789 337793 336798 337802
      342802 351792 357787 365785 371781 373778 375774 375764
      377756 378750
 0.50 357741 356739 355740 354742 353742 353744 352746 352749
      352750 354749 354748 356746 357743 357742 357741
 0.50 353049 352048 351048 352049 353049
 0.50 336986 334980 326976 324973 323969 325960 327954 324952
      322953 320956 317963 317971 321979 317988 324987 329988
      333987 336986
 0.50 331058 330056 329056 327056 325057 327058 328058 330058
      331058
 0.50 332911 332906 332902 332898 331893 329891 327894 326898
      326902 326906 326909 326913 326916 327919 330919 331917
      332913 332911
 0.50 324072 322071 318071 315070 312071 311073 311075 310077
      312079 314080 318081 320079 322077 323074 324072
 0.50 308013 308011 308009 307007 306005 305004 304002 304000
      303998 302997 300996 300998 300000 299002 299004 300006
      300007 301008 302011 304012 305013 307013 308013
 0.50 283800 279796 275794 266792 254791 248791 243793 242798
      243805 243812 247814 253814 257817 261820 265821 269820
      270815 263809 267806 272805 283800
 0.50 231955 234958 239958 243957 246954 251947 257941 262935
      263933 264927 262917 259909 255901 252897 248895 238894
      231895 227897
 1.00 370765 371761 370757 363759 359763 355768 352773 350778
      348780 348785 349787 353787 356783 361779 364775 368775
      370768 370765
 1.00 268798 266796 260795 257794 251795 248797 246801 247806
      251807 256807 258809 256807 259803 263801 268800 268798
 1.00 230941 235946 238947 242945 248941 251935 254929 255921
      253911 251905 246899 243898 238899 233902 227907
 1.50 363769 361766 359767 357770 356772 355775 354779 352782
      354782 357779 359776 360774 362771 363769
 1.50 230934 234937 237937 243935 246931 250927 252923 251917
      249911 247905 242902 237905 233909 229913 229914
 2.00 249925 249919 248913 246910 243907 239908 237911 235914
      231917 230922 230928 233931 237932 241931 244928 248926
      249925

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion