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Tropical Forecast & Discussion


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261122
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 26 Jun 2017 12:48:46 GMT

Eastern Pacific Ocean
Tropical Forecast & Discussion


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261121
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 26 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Dora, located a couple of hundred miles south of
Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Hurricane Dora (EP4/EP042017)

...DORA BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...
 As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 26
 the center of Dora was located near 16.7, -105.3
 with movement WNW at 13 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 989 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane Dora Public Advisory Number 6

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 260840
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

...DORA BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 105.3W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 105.3 West. Dora is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Dora
is expected to remain offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is
likely today before weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dora is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 2
inches along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and
Michoacan through this evening.

SURF:  Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico.  These swells are expected to spread
northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the
southern Baja California peninsula on Tuesday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Dora Forecast Advisory Number 6

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 26 2017  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 260840
TCMEP4

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042017
0900 UTC MON JUN 26 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 105.3W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 105.3W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.4N 106.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.2N 108.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.8N 110.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.2N 112.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.9N 115.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 105.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Hurricane Dora Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 260844
TCDEP4

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Dora has continued to intensify overnight with a well-defined eye on
microwave data and occasional hints of an eye on conventional
satellite imagery.  The cloud pattern has also become more symmetric
than 6 hours ago, with outflow expanding in all quadrants. Satellite
estimates supported an intensity of 65 kt at 0600 UTC, but with the
improving satellite presentation since that time, the initial wind
speed is set to 70 kt.  Dora has about 12-24 hours to further
strengthen before a combination of cooling SSTs and a more
dry and stable environment likely causes the hurricane to start to
decay.  Interestingly, the models are in poor agreement on the
weakening rate of Dora, with the regional hurricane models showing
the cyclone losing strength much faster than the statistical aids.
Since the shear is expected to remain low, which would normally
inhibit dry air intrusions, the NHC forecast is a little higher than
the model consensus, closer to the SHIPS/LGEM solutions and the
previous NHC forecast.  Given the spread in the guidance, this is a
low confidence forecast.

Dora is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. A strong mid-level
ridge to the north of Dora is expected to steer the tropical
cyclone west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Dora
should turn westward in about 3 days as it loses deep convection and
becomes a more shallow low. Models have shifted a bit southward
since the previous advisory, and the official NHC track forecast
follows suit. The global models also show Dora weakening into a
trough by day 5, and this is reflected in the dissipation forecast
for that time.

Although Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the
tropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of
coastal southwestern Mexico through this evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 16.7N 105.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 17.4N 106.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 18.2N 108.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 18.8N 110.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 19.2N 112.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 19.9N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  30/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Dora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 26 2017                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 260841
PWSEP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042017               
0900 UTC MON JUN 26 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70   
KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                            
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN BLAS       34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
P VALLARTA     34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
15N 105W       34  3   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MANZANILLO     34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
15N 110W       34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
20N 110W       34  2   9(11)  37(48)   4(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
20N 110W       50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2   7( 9)  56(65)  18(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   1( 1)  22(23)  15(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  12(18)   X(18)   X(18)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)  23(28)   3(31)   X(31)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Hurricane Dora Graphics

Hurricane Dora 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Jun 2017 08:46:23 GMT

Hurricane Dora 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Jun 2017 09:23:36 GMT