Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

  3-Day Solar-Geophysical Forecast Updated 2014 Oct 22 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
22/1428Z from Region 2192 (S12E06). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be high on
days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
607 km/s at 21/2101Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/1510Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/0454Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11815 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Oct), unsettled to active
levels on day two (24 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(25 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one
through three (23-25 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M    95/95/95
Class X    55/55/55
Proton     35/40/45
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Oct 216
Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct 215/220/220
90 Day Mean        22 Oct 137

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  014/015-012/015-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/35/30
Major-severe storm    40/40/25

  Real Time Images of the Sun

   SOHO EIT 304  
Click for time-lapse image of the sun
   SOHO EIT 284  
SOHO EIT 284 image of the sun
   Mauna Loa Solar Image  
Latest Mauna Loa image of the Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for Sun Spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures.

In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin.
In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees.
195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees.
The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

  Real Time Solar X-Ray and Solar Wind

  Solar Cycle Progression  
Graph showing current solar cycle progression
Solar Cycle chart updated using the latest ISES predictions.
  Real-Time Solar Wind  
Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. Solar maximum is expected to occur in May, 2013.

   Solar X-Ray Flux  
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.
   Satellite Environment Plot  
Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

  Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

   Northern Hemi Auroral Map  
Current Northern hemispheric power input map
   Southern Hemi Auroral Map  
Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of: NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR) and SOHO (ESA & NASA).

Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Now
Today's Space Weather
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Outlooks
Space Weather Bulletins
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Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images

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