Memphis Area Forecast Discussion



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NWS Memphis Weather Forecast Office

NWS Memphis Area Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: MEG
Regional NWS Weather Office: Memphis, TN

000
FXUS64 KMEG 190438
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1138 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion.

&&

..PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 827 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

UPDATE...
Updated for increased cloud cover and an adjustment to overnight
rain chances.

DISCUSSION...

Cluster of thunderstorms over the Arkansas Ozarks will continue to
drift southeast with significant mid and high level moisture
streaming into the western Midsouth counties. A few light showers
or a clap of thunder will be possible from this blow-off from 9pm
on...with the heaviest of convection expected to stay well off to
our west. Have made slight adjustments of cloud cover and rain
chances to the late evening and overnight forecast.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

Current conditions are pleasant around the region, with
temperatures largely in the upper 80s to lower 90s under sunny
skies. Winds have been light this afternoon, generally less than 5
knots. Latest surface analysis reveals a stationary boundary just
north of the region, while H5 analysis depicts the region beneath
southwest flow aloft with a trough axis to the northwest of the
FA.

Conditions will remain dry this evening, but models develop an MCS
along the stationary boundary to the north as weak impulses aloft
intersect this feature. Remnants of this system will likely make
their way into the region on Saturday morning, and thus included
chance POPs for western portions of the FA. Saturday highs will
be warm, reaching the low to mid 90s in southernmost counties,
with upper 80s in northern counties. Heat indices could near 105
in the southern tier counties, but no advisory is forthcoming at
this time as confidence of reaching this threshold is low. An
upper ridge begins to build by late Saturday, allowing for low to
mid 90s areawide on Sunday. Some diurnal convection will be
possible on Sunday afternoon, primarily across the southwestern
half of the region.

The upper ridge shifts east on Monday, while the region becomes
entrenched between a surface high to the east and a developing
low to the west. This will enhance moisture advection into the
region beneath southwest flow aloft and southerly flow at the
surface. This will allow for more diurnal convection on Monday,
with the best chances over eastern Arkansas as subsidence beneath
the ridge will still be impacting eastern regions. This will also
provide some cumulus cloud cover, which could be a concern for
eclipse viewing, but it currently appears skies should remain
partly sunny at most. Highs could again reach the low 90s on
Monday, but temperatures will be impacted by the reduction of
surface heating during the eclipse.

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will again be possible on
Tuesday, but the best chance for precipitation will come midweek
as a cold front drops into the region. This will be short lived as
a high builds in behind the feature on Thursday, keeping
conditions dry to end the week. Temperatures will be a couple of
degrees cooler than normal mid to late next week in the wake of
the effective cold front.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION.../06z TAFs/

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period outside of
some vsby reductions in fog late tonight into early Saturday
morning. A few showers will be possible around KTUP as a complex
of storms weakens and moves across northeast Mississippi. A weak
cold front will stall across the region on Saturday with
additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds
should remain rather weak, below 6 kts, through the forecast
period.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

Memphis Area Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS