Memphis Area Forecast Discussion



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NWS Memphis Weather Forecast Office

NWS Memphis Area Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: MEG
Regional NWS Weather Office: Memphis, TN

458
FXUS64 KMEG 231141
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
641 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The remnants of Cindy remain the focus for this forecast update.
Early morning satellite and radar trends show an increase in
convection to the Northeast of the center of circulation. The
HRRR model seems to have a very good handle on this
development...although it seems to have the low/Cindy a bit too
far North. WPC 24hr QPF totals are below 3 inches with 3 and 6 hr
Flash Flood guidance of 2.5-3.5 inches and 3-4 inches
respectively. Observed three hour rainfall rates associated with
the convection in East Arkansas are increasing but remain below
1.5 inches per hour. Precipitable water values in excess of two
inches...may result in rain rates as high as 2 inches per hour
over the next few hours. Vertical wind profiles near and West of
the Mississippi are more unidirectional than they are farther East
supporting training of showers/thunderstorms. However as the
low/Cindy moves to the Northeast...the focus for the any training
storms should shift East. Not very confident that the ongoing
Flash flood watch is warranted...but with the recent convective
development and coordination with surrounding offices decided to
not make any changes.

The Storm Prediction Center has included a small portion of West
Tennessee and Northeast Mississippi...mainly near the Tennessee
River and Alabama state line in a Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms today. Farther West to the Mississippi River there
is a Marginal risk. The main threat will be brief tornadoes to the
East of the center of circulation where vertical shear is
maximized.

Highs today...and for the next 5 days or more should remain below
normal. Some guidance even keeps far Northern portions of the
Midsouth in the 70s for highs early next week. That seems unlikely
in late June...so I tacked on a couple degrees to guidance during
that timeframe. After midweek high temperatures should rebound
back to within a couple degrees of normal...generally in the upper
80s. After Cindy moves out of the area this evening and a cold
front shifts through the area tonight there does not appear to be
any enhanced chance of rain for the next 7 days. No plans to add
anything to the HWO.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF cycle

Low clouds will remain over the region for much of the day as the
remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy move across the forecast area.
Periods of rain will continue through much of the daylight hours
as well. Conditions will improve late tonight with VFR conditions
returning. Winds will be mainly from the south today at 10 to 15
knots with higher gusts shifting to the north tonight.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Benton MS-Coahoma-
     DeSoto-Lafayette-Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tunica-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-Obion-
     Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

$$

Memphis Area Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS