Memphis Area Forecast Discussion



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NWS Memphis Weather Forecast Office

NWS Memphis Area Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: MEG
Regional NWS Weather Office: Memphis, TN

774
FXUS64 KMEG 132322
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
522 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated to include 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A dry cold front will continue to move across the Mid South from
late this afternoon through late evening. Critical fire weather
conditions will continue through early evening but should
gradually improve as relative humidity levels rise. The fire
danger should be lower on Thursday as relative humidity values,
lighter winds, and colder temperatures are expected. Blowing dust
west of the Mississippi River and gusty southwest winds should
begin to diminish by early this evening. High temperatures will
remain in the 40s on Thursday under sunny skies. Dry weather
conditions should persist through Saturday with slowly warming
temperatures through the first part of the weekend.

Models have come into better agreement regarding significant
shortwave pushing through the region late in the weekend into
early next week. Rain will develop late Saturday night and
continue through Sunday night. Rain will linger into Monday across
eastern portions of the area. Overall rainfall totals do not look
overly impressive, especially across areas west of the Mississippi
River where drought conditions are worst. Expect only around one-
third of an inch in those locations, with up to one inch possible
in eastern areas. Temperatures should remain seasonable through
the weekend with highs mainly in the 50s and lows in the upper 30s
to middle 40s.

For the extended forecast period, including the early to middle
part of next week, model guidance remains inconsistent. The
latest forecast for this time period will lean towards the latest
ECMWF which are supported best by the longer range model ensemble
guidance. Therefore, at this time, will keep weather conditions
dry along with warmer temperatures into the middle of next week.
It appears that a pattern change towards wetter and colder
conditions can be expected as we get towards the Christmas holiday
and beyond. Stay tuned.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs

Cold front will move trough TAF sites tonight. Gusty SW winds will
diminish this evening, veer W then NW/N with passage of front. Winds
will average between 7-11 kts on Thursday then become light
towards late Thursday afternoon. Potential will exist for MVFR
conditions to develop at MKL/TUP on Thursday. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected to prevail through the period.


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Mississippi-
     Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Dunklin-
     Pemiscot.

MS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Coahoma-DeSoto-
     Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica.

TN...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Crockett-Dyer-
     Fayette-Gibson-Haywood-Lake-Lauderdale-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-
     Weakley.

&&

$$

Memphis Area Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS