Memphis Area Forecast Discussion



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NWS Memphis Weather Forecast Office

NWS Memphis Area Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: MEG
Regional NWS Weather Office: Memphis, TN

000
FXUS64 KMEG 210431
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1131 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated to include the 06z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 839 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/

UPDATE...
It`s quiet across the Mid-South at the current time. An abundance
of mid/high cloud cover will persist through the overnight hours
and into Sunday with lower ceilings expected to develop toward
sunrise. A decent warm advection pattern is setting up over the
western portion of the CWA tonight. This may result in a few
showers during the overnight hours, mainly west of the Mississippi
River. A slight chance of showers was included 6-12z tonight.
Otherwise, generally dry conditions are expected Saturday morning
with a slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Instability will remain limited over our neck of the woods, with
the most likely area for stronger storms remaining well to our
west. Cloud cover was also increase overnight given the current
satellite trends. Otherwise, only minor changes were made to the
forecast.

Looking ahead, a decent rainfall remains likely, mainly during the
day Sunday. The initial bout of showers and thunderstorms will
likely move into the Mid-South as a QLCS Sunday morning. Enhanced
rain chances will persist across the CWA through Monday as the
associated upper-level trough closes off and slows as it traverses
the region. Rainfall amounts of 1-3" are expected across the Mid-
South between Sunday morning and Monday afternoon. It is worth
noting that the WPC does have much of the Mid-South in a slight
risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday, so we`ll continue to
monitor. That said, 3-hr flash flood guidance exceeds 2.5" across
the entire CWA and 4" in some areas, so the potential for flash
flooding remains somewhat limited.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Models in general agreement with the pattern as a upper level high
pushes to the east as a large amplitude trough pushes towards the
Mid-South. Late on Saturday the upper level trough splits and
closes off a low that is generally south of the area and this
stalls precipitation across the Mid-South providing even more than
just with the frontal passage assoicated with the upper low
trough. However, this closed upper low gets absorbed into the
large upper trough and allows even a colder air mass into the area
midweek.

The frontal system on Sunday will bring rain and thunderstorms,
however, the upper level pattern doesn`t make it conducive for
severe weather as it closes off and any forcing is moved south of
the area. The instability even in the southern parts of the area
is fairly weak. This being said, there still may be some strong
storms on Sunday, however, no severe weather.

The secondary air mass behind this front will bring in the cold
air by midweek and this may bring some frost to the area,
especially near the Tennessee River.

Dry conditions after Tuesday.

TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
/06z TAFs/

A few showers will be possible late tonight in the vicinity of
KJBR but otherwise dry conditions are anticipated overnight with
VFR ceilings developing toward sunrise, mainly at KMEM and KJBR.
A few afternoon showers and/or a thunderstorm are possible
along/west of the Mississippi River. However, confidence remains
low that any station will be affected. Occasional wind gusts are
possible Saturday afternoon, but will be more prevalent by
mid/late evening Saturday (especially at KJBR/KMEM) as a low-
level jet develops above the relatively stable boundary layer.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

Memphis Area Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS