Memphis Area Forecast Discussion |
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NWS Memphis Area Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: MEG
Regional NWS Weather Office: Memphis, TN
County Warning Area [CWA]: MEG
Regional NWS Weather Office: Memphis, TN
000 FXUS64 KMEG 190405 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1105 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 835 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Cold temperatures will overspread the Mid-South tonight with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. A Freeze Warning will go into effect at 11PM and expire at 9AM Tuesday. Make sure to cover sensitive vegetation and exposed pipes. Temperatures will begin warming tomorrow as south winds advect warmer air into the region. As a result, afternoon temperatures will be near 60 degrees. ANS && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Our break from Spring (Spring Break) will last another 24 hours or so but sub freezing temperatures are likely tonight across all of the Midsouth. Highs tomorrow should be near 60 with middle 60s to low 70s for the remainder of the work week and over the weekend. Our next chance of rain will be late Wednesday night and continue through early Friday. The weekend looks dry with increasing clouds Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 It`s a chilly Spring day across the Midsouth. Current temperatures remain in the 40s across most of the area with highs expected to reach the middle 40s to middle 50s in the next hour or two. High pressure currently over the Plains will shift to the south and east tonight becoming centered over Louisiana tomorrow. The closer proximity of the surface high will result in light winds and clear skies overnight. Light winds, clear skies, and a dry airmass featuring dewpoints in the 20s to low 30s will result in efficient radiational cooling allowing temperatures to quickly fall into the 30s with morning lows in the middle 20s to low 30s. A freeze warning is in effect for all of the Midsouth. NBM data indicates a 50% greater probability that nearly all of the Midsouth will fall below freezing. For most of northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, west Tennessee and much of north Mississippi there is a medium(40-70%) to high(greater than 70%) probability of falling below 28 degrees. Any outdoor plants could suffer damage or even be killed tonight. The Mississippi Delta south of Memphis stands the best chance of avoiding a hard freeze (below 28 degrees) tonight into Tuesday morning. Frost/Freeze headlines have been posted. High temperatures will begin to rebound tomorrow with highs in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees and near 70 degrees Wednesday. Weak northwest flow will setup across much of the Mississippi River Valley midweek, and remain in place through Saturday. A backdoor cold front will move across the Midsouth Wednesday night resulting in a slight cooldown. A cutoff low over the Desert Southwest Wednesday will become an open shortwave after midweek and approach the Midsouth Thursday. Return flow ahead of this system looks minimal and even drier air will filter in behind the backdoor cold front. The cutoff low will result in our next chance of rain although rainfall totals do not look very significant, generally less than one quarter of an inch. The shortwave should move east of the area by Saturday resulting in a dry start to the weekend. Highs Saturday should be in the middle to upper 60s with 70s on Sunday. Clouds and a few showers should return to the Midsouth late Sunday as the next storm system develops in the Plains and approaches the middle Mississippi River Valley. 30/Sirmon && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR. Light winds overnight will become SW Tuesday and increase to 10-15 kts with higher gusts by mid-morning. Winds will diminish to 5-8 kts around sunset. A low level jet will develop for a few hours Tuesday night across northern sections of the Mid-South impacting JBR and MKL. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058. MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115. MS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001>017-020>024. TN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...SJM
Memphis Area Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS |