000
FXUS64 KMEG 271136 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
636 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Mild temperatures will persist through the weekend with rain
chances returning late Sunday night. A brief lull in precipitation
will occur on Tuesday before daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms return midweek. Wet and mild conditions will persist
through Saturday with seven day rainfall totals ranging from 2-4
inches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A broad upper level trough will slowly pull northeast into the
Central Plains today, becoming negatively tilted this afternoon.
While this system will bring severe weather concerns to much of
the Plains, local impacts will be minimal thanks to a strong upper
level ridge centered over southeast CONUS. Warm temperatures will
remain through the weekend with highs in the low to mid 80s.

On Sunday, a shortwave will eject from the aforementioned trough
and approach the Mid-South. A line of showers and thunderstorms
should develop near the ArkLaTex region by midday and push
eastward. Both ECMWF and GEFS Ensembles depict only a 30% chance
of > 500 J/kg of SBCAPE along and west of the MS River late Sunday
evening. Instability values will continue to wane through the
overnight hours, resulting in a limited severe weather threat.
Any severe storms that do form will likely remain along and west
of the MS River with damaging winds the primary concern.

Precipitable Water values Sunday night into Monday will increase
to about 1.6 inches, which is around the 99th percentile for this
time of year. As such, heavy rainfall will be a concern. The
Weather Prediction Center has included much of the Mid-South in a
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall both Sunday and Monday. Storm
total precipitation upwards of 2 inches will be possible, mainly
along and west of the MS River.

Wet and warm conditions will remain through the work week as
several shortwaves, embedded within zonal flow aloft, transverse
the region. Daily rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms
will persist through Saturday, allowing for an additional 1-2
inches of rainfall. The next chance for a cold front will likely
be on Saturday. Until then, make sure you have your umbrella
handy.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Strong southerly surface winds and LLWS will remain the primary
aviation weather impacts over the next 30 hours.

Warm advection scattered -SHRA should diminish in coverage as the
mixing layer deepens with daytime heating and weakening of the low
level jet (FL020 winds). The atmosphere will otherwise remain
capped to deep convection through 18Z Sunday, keeping TSRA chances
below mentionable levels in the TAF. TCF and Extended TCF charts
appear on target.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB